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2010-01-12T14:11:00.000-08:00

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OLF Annual Film Festival: Review of the Inside the Rebel Territory and Inside the Limousine Films

2009-12-13T10:17:00.001-08:00

Showing a video of Oromos soldiers every summer has been one of the most effective fund-raising tool used by OLF since 1980's. The leaders know that as a people who have been oppressed, humiliated and dehumanized beyond any imagination, Oromos are extremely emotionally eager to see liberation soldiers fighting to regain the lost pride. Since the leader rarely had notable achievement to show, they simply produce videos to tell Oromos about an upcoming major plan to destroy the enemy. So, it was not surprising to see another production of video reached the diaspora audience this past summer. Now lets review what the goal of the two videos were, what impact they had and if any lesson can be learn from it.

Inside the Rebel Territory

This film, which was supposed to be four part, was professionally produced by an impressive Kenyan journalist. The fact that this documentary was produced by a concerned young African native makes its quite interesting in world where few and only foreign journalists dare to go into such conflict zone to produce documentaries, not to tell address the core issues of the conflict but to romanticize the war and depict Africans as animals born to kill each other. Unfortunately, for the OLF faction whose primary goal is to destroy each other than advance their stated goal, the documentary became their major cause of controversy over the summer. I have argued in one of my previous articles that the “change” group is unlikely to make any difference because they have not truly differentiated themselves from the old guard. My assumption was confirmed as the numerous articles written by individuals aligned with this faction attest, the primary objective of the “change” in helping produce this documentary was to outshine Dawud's faction during the summer festival.1 Specifically they wanted to prove that their faction is the only one with military force and hence the legitimate OLF. As Dawud's faction could not show any thing to counter the powerful video, it is quite fair to say that this summer was dominated by the change group, thus, as far as change's narrow objective is concerned, they have been quite successful. Their cadres have been obsessed in convincing the public about the death of “shanee” rather tell us how many enemies they have killed. The video is supposedly meant to show the “existence” of the OLA, but the “change” have yet to realize that a symbolic existence with no tangible result means nothing. Although they have repeated the outdated promise of liberating Oromia soon, it is hard to believe them as their entire focus so far is eliminating their factional opponent, and we know from past experience that any group that prioritizes fighting internal adversaries will loose sight of the real enemy. So if they want us to believe about their military power, they better back up this video with real actions in Oromia. For this to happen, they need to stop this destructive factional politics and focus, and more importantly, unless he moves in to jungle of Oromia and command his soldiers, their chairman will not be any different than the persons her rebelled against. “ Haatee barreddii jennaan karaa kanaa dhuftii ni agarta” jedhan Oromoon.

Inside the Limousine

Mr. Dawud's faction seem unprepared for the bomb shell this video dropped, thus all they could do was send out a self-ridiculing press release that shamelessly claimed about how unnecessary and impossible it is to have a base in Kenya2. I do not understand how they came to conclude that a neighboring country with the longest boarder with Oromia and where a distance of over 100 km into its land is been occupied by Oromo people is less strategically important than an internationally isolated, economically crumbling state. Unless they are trying to cover their past failure to have strong presence in Kenya, there is no question that Kenya is the number one strategically important neighbor for an Oromo insurgency. May be it is too painful for OLF leaders to remember that in 1990's although several Oromos occupied important positions within Kenyan government, the OLF, consumed with its never ending internal war, was never able to take advantage of the situation.

When the press release backfired, Dawud's faction released a video of the chairman , who is been touring America, being received by a limousine.3 It is not really clear what this faction wanted to gain by this video, but it is quite laughable for a man who led this organization to its grave to show off like that. This video indicates how factionalism has completely disillusioned the supporters, and how the man has lost touch with the reality.

Lesson's to be learned

The “inside the rebel territory” documentary has way more importance to the Oromo cause than change group aimed for. It has introduced our just cause to the Kenyan public, may be for the first time ever. As Yassin Juma claimed, the documentary truly demystified about the OLF. One of my Kenyan classmates once told me that the Kenyan people thought of OLF as a cross-boarder bandits who have been engaged in looting cattle. Asked about the allegation of the Turbi massacre, Liban, the field commander, precisely and eloquently responded that their struggle is against the Ethiopian government, and hence they have no reason to fight in Kenya. I do not think it would be an exaggeration to say that that young commander has done a much better diplomatic work in improving the relationship between the Kenyan and Oromo people than the OLF leadership was able to achieve in the last several decades.

Predictably, TPLF showed an extreme reaction to this video. Some people believed that this reaction was because the regime in Finfinne does not want the public to know about the existence of an organization it has repeatedly declared dead. I do not believe so. The TPLF wants the OLF to be around, it will even do any thing it can to keep it on life support. This is because without OLF around, TPLF will have no excuse to harass, imprison, execute and repress Oromo dissents. Therefore, in my view, the reason why TPLF was very upset about this video is because, if a documentary made by a Kenyan national is aired on a national television, it could have unpredictable geopolitical impact. This fear is correct because several sources within Kenya have testified that, when the advertisement of the documentary was released, the Kenyan public was highly eager to watch it. Even after the much altered version was aired, the issue has become one of the major talking point among all sections of the society – TPLF's dictatorial attempt to block an independent media in a sovereign nation backfired pushing the issue in to several major news outlets around the world. What learn from this saga is that the Kenyan people have been kept at dark about the issues across the boarder, but they highly receptive of the Oromo cause if and when its properly presented to them. This video has opened a great window of opportunity, its up to us to capitalize on it.

In general the two video games presented by OLF faction have made the summer quite interesting. As far as the factional politics is concerned the change group has scored 1 point, and the Dawud' group -1. But as far as moving their stated goal forward, they both receive a big 0.

Singers and the Dictator in Ethiopia

2009-12-13T10:12:00.000-08:00

Due to their immense talent and creativity, artists express the unspoken and often suppressed feelings of the society. This creativity is power, a power not just to express the views of the society but also to resonate what is hidden and change public opinion about policies. That is the very reason why artists are among the primary enemies of every dictator. A tyrant’s worst nightmare is artists and their work becoming popular. If they can, dictators, would make art disappear, if not control it. But art does not disappear under repression, it hides for a while, then springs up from nowhere at another time. Neither is art controllable. Creativity combines vision, conviction and imagination. An artist who surrenders to the pressure may lose these three crucial qualities, as a result he/she can no longer produce a work of art. In an oppressed society, I believe a true artist always tends to be in dissent.
In Ethiopia, successive tyrants have always been at war with artists who never rest from exposing injustices, corruption and other social ills creatively. Although novelists, painters and poets have been at the forefront of the war, singers tend to be the most dangerous for dictators. This is because in a country where two-third of the population does not read, the best way of communication has been oral. Add the deeply penetrating culture of love for music in our societies, you will find a powerful weapon of delivering your message.
The recent imprisonment of two rising stars Oromo singers, Dirribe Gadaa and Haacaaluu Hundeessaa is this continuation of the confrontation between the tyrant and the art. The two youngsters were arrested and have been tortured simply because their songs resonated with the resistance movement and they became an overnight sensation. They are being punished to discourage others from following in their footsteps in becoming a voice of the voiceless. But this is a futile attempt, as the two singers themselves are simply following the past giants who defied repression and exposed injustice through their music. They are not the first to pay the price and if it continues as it is they won’t be the last. Popular Oromo singers Ebbisaa Addunyaa was executed in his own home on august 31st, 1996, Usmayyoo Muussaa was tortured for eight years in prison, and was released to die once the regime confirmed both of his kidneys had failed due to the ordeals. Zarihun Wadajo who has been going in and out of prison for the last two decades has also been thrown back once again.
The repression against Oromo singers was so severe in the 90’s that by the end of the decade, almost all of the famous singers were either killed, or have been forced into exile. When the tyrant thought he had finally dealt with the problem, a new generation of singers sprang out in hundreds. Unfortunate for the regime and lucky for the artists, technological advancement has made production and distribution of music faster and cheaper. Stereos are cheaper and widely
available than they used to be a decade ago. There are small personal CD players that can be purchased at a fraction of what it used to cost to buy a National or Sharp stereo a decade ago. Hence the market for Oromo music has been the fastest growing in the industry. This is a nightmare for a tyrant whose attempt to indoctrinate the youth and the peasants with his revolutionary “democracy” scam.
Why do Dictators Hate Singers?
Actually tyrants do not just hate singers, they are terrified of them. Think about it. A tyrant spends so many resources and recruits thousands of cadres to spread propaganda to gain legitimacy. A poor singer with a couple of instrumentalists produces beautiful music, deep with messages of resistance that has strong emotional impact on the audience. With a single song he/she completely obliterates the effort of thousands of cadres. Here are two examples of two great singers frustrating the dictator.
One Singer vs. 60 Thousand Cadres
Let me remind you about a joke from the 90’s. Kuma Demeksa presents a report to Meles Zenawi claiming that he trained 60 thousand cadres. The boss did not congratulate Kuma, he was frustrated and dismissed the subordinate saying “What’s the point of training 60 thousand cadres, while Umar Sulayman can turn against us 30 million people with a single cassette?” Umar Sulayman is one of the most popular folk singers of all time. In addition to his subversive and emotionally moving music, his tactics made it difficult for the regime to shut him down. The artist was a one-man army, he wrote his own lyrics, melody, and played the guitar himself. To avoid detection, he would often record the music in a non-traditional studio – by himself and his tape recorder. He needed no producer or promoter. Basically his work required as little help as possible from others. In such ways he avoided detection. After searching for him everywhere, the security forces would give up assuming that either he has left the country or dead. Then boom! A new collection of his music would hit the market. When music stores refused to buy his music due to fear of punishment, he distributed the music for free. When the 60 thousand cadres went after peasants who would play his music, guess what farmers did; they simply filled their stereos with batteries and placed them on the tallest trees in the area. It was a nightmare for security forces who were trying to block the music from reaching the mass.
Pop Icon vs. A Despotic Tyrant
Another example of the fight between the tyrant and artists is the case of Teddy Afro. Teddy’s emergence as a popular singer was not seen as much of threat initially. His songs were all about love not politics. The thinking was that he is just a city boy with talent for music, hence would not care much about the social and political conditions that were affecting the larger public. But artistic talent
and creativity rarely come without passion and concern for social issues. Soon the pop icon, whose messianic influence over the young generation in cities was unparalleled at the time, delivered a heavy blow to the tyrant at the worst time possible. He released his “yasteserial” in the eve of the 2005 election, when the regime was facing a sure defeat and was searching for ways to survive. The song was a direct contradiction to what the regime has been preaching. The tyrants say it deposed Mengistu’s dictatorships, the singer says but where is the change. The tyrant works hard to increase division among the people, the singer calls for unity. The dictator’s wishes ‘interhamwee’ like genocide against minorities, Teddy sings peace and love among all. And the audience is the unemployed urban youth which the tyrant shamelessly labeled “adegegna bozene” – dangerous hooligans.
Facing a certain loss in the ideal battle, the regime attempted co-optation. Assuming the city boy would shut up if offered enough money; they ask the “shady Sheik” to make irresistible offer to Teddy. But by then the singer was rich by his own merits and too determined not to back down. This followed with intimidation in the form of threats and harassment. The hope was either he will shut up or will be scared enough to leave the country. The creative dude didn’t give in, and became even more outspoken. Teddy went to go to jail for a terrible crime. Though the circumstances are still confusing, he was convicted of killing an innocent man in a hit-and-run motor vehicle accident. His supporters believe that he was framed and viewed him as a political prisoner. Was the despot happy? Far from it. The court rooms were packed by those who love Teddy the artists and Teddy the freedom fighter. Even worse for a dictator was when international journalist digging into the dirt of his “legal” system began finding out about tens of thousands of political prisoners who were locked up for years. Under pressure from all, Teddy is released. The tyrant hopes that the artist has learned his lessons and will shut up, but only time will tell.
In the mean time, there are these two young Oromo singers, Haacaaluu Hundessaa and Derribe Gadaa who have poked their noses in the wrong place. Their songs have become too popular, they are re-energizing the Oromo youth resistance. It is better to shut them up before others follow in their footsteps. It’s a futile attempt. True artists know the truth and by reviling it they put their lives at risk. The war goes on between art and tyranny until the later is vanquished for good.
Jawar Siraj Mohammed [jawarmd@gmail.com]

Killing the Press to Silence a Nation

2009-12-13T09:57:00.000-08:00

In the summer of 2008, I picked up a couple of newspapers the morning I returned to Finfinne. Among them was the Addis Neger. The quality of the paper; its fairness, the depth of research and the balance of views expressed blew me off as I flipped through the pages. From Dilla to Moyale, Ciro to Awaday, people took turns to read a week old copy of Addis Neger left in our car.

The now infamous post 2005 election crackdown wiped out all independent papers in the country. As such, I did not expect to see a paper of such great quality. I feared that Addis Neger wouldn’t last long under a regime that is considered among the leading enemies of free press in the world. This week what I feared happened. After months of incessant harassment and intimidation, the young groups of journalists were forced to close down the paper and flee the country.

In an interview they gave to VOA’s Amharic service, the journalists alleged that they withstood months of harassment and intimidation but had to leave the country when they heard that the regime was about to charge them under auspices of the new “anti-terrorism law” that carries severe penalties. In the last several months, they were subjected to around-the-clock surveillances by the security service making their job extremely difficult. Since their every move was being monitored, they simply could not conduct confidential interviews and anyone seen talking to them or visiting their offices will immediately be captured and harassed.

In the same week, the regime has also re-charged four other newspapers which were banned following the 2005 election. It is to be remembered that the journalists were charged with treason and fined heavily but later pardoned by the rubberstamp “president”. At the time, their “amnesty” was announced by the “gracious” Prime Minster, Meles Zenawi. Now three years later, the regime denies, ever pardoning them and has ordered the kangaroo court to freeze and liquidate all properties owned the accused publishing houses.

Why Now?

The answer is short. Another round of sham election is fast approaching. By his own admission, Meles Zenawi has learned “important lessons” from the 2005 election. One crucial lesson is, if a free and fair election was to be allowed at the presence of a vibrant independent media, Ethiopia will not be home to despotic dictators. Moreover, independent media has always been the primary enemy of tyrants as the press exposes lies, corruptions and weaknesses within the system. Even in the absence of an independent electoral commission and a strong opposition, the presence of a free press has significant impact on preventing the regime from cheating, misleading the public and gaining legitimacy. So why let the “enemy combatant” journalists loose during the upcoming election, while he can cook up false charges and persecute them using the phony “anti-terrorism law” or just order the judges to impose hefty fines and drive the publishing houses out of business?

Plagiarized Tactics from Lee Kuan Yew and Vladimir Putin’s Cook Book?

What makes modern tyrants different from their predecessors is their ability and cooperation to learn from each other. Meles is not inventing all the tactics that he uses to repress the press, suppress the opposition and dissent in the country. He has been copying tactics from other dictators and improvising it to fit local realities. The current tactics at work in Ethiopia to harass journalists were originally developed by Lee Kuan Yew, the former Prime Minister of Singapore and were further perfected by Russia's Vladimir Putin.

Lee figured out that he did not need to kill his opponents – like the neighboring Suharto of Indonesia or Khmer Rouge of Cambodia – while he can easily maintain an iron grip over the island by using the “law”. By passing legislations such as the “anti-defamation” Act, he simply let his prosecutors and even personal lawyers go after anyone who dared to criticize him or his regime. For a single speech or piece of writing; journalists and opposition leaders faced multiple charges such as libel, allegation, indecency, slander etc. It became quite common to see a journalist charged with more than ten counts of crime for a single piece of writing.

The logic is here simple. By raking up multiple charges on a single individual or an organization; you can bankrupt it either due to the very high legal cost or through hefty fines by the puppet courts. Most journalists and opposition groups facing such persecutions either give up and surrender to self-censorship or leave the country. It worked for Lee, after all his party has been in power since the inception of the country, his family runs several of the major companies, while his son is the current Prime Minister – the opposition is weak and very few journalists dare to criticize the regime or the ruling family. It is obvious that, Meles has plagiarized Lee’s tactics and has been perfecting it in the last few years.

Putin's predecessors, Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yelsin, allowed free press. When their policies failed to bring about immediate improvements for ordinary Russians, they came under heavy criticism from the media. Particularly during Yelsin’s administration, the media exposed the conflicted situation in Chechnya and public opinion about the war turned against the regime. Coming to power, Putin saw the media as a major threat to his reign, and if he was to govern the country as he wished, the media had to be removed from the equation.

Putin crafted tactics that allowed his cronies to buy almost all the major media outlets through a hostile takeover. Soon enough, the popular anti-regime comedy shows such as the “Puppet” known for satiric portrayals of politicians – similar to the Saturday Night Live in America – were taken off the air and replaced by images of the strong, decisive and determined Vladimir Putin. Within few years, Putin became the most popular leader since the Bolsheviks. He was so effective that he had a youth cult group called “Nashi” that goes around to harass and bully Putin’s opponents.

Our “strong man” in Finfinne did not miss the opportunity to imitate Putin. After the 2005 election, he managed to shutdown all independent press and replaced it with his own version of “private press.” Supposedly, there are even “private” FM radio stations in Ethiopia but it is impossible to tell whether you are listening to an independent programming or a state owned station. Even Walta Information and Radio Fana, founded and run by the ruling party, are said to be “privately owned share companies”, yet their content is the exact same thing as the officially state owned Addis Zemen or Ethiopian Radio. Seeing thousands’ of youth wearing a T-shirt with Mele’s boldface at the recently held third youth indoctrination conference, Meles and his allies might believe that Putin's tactics are working for them.

In a very strange twist of events, Meles’ supporters are vying that the newspaper is not closed and publication will continue. It is believed that the regime may try to continue the printing of Addis Neger after transferring ownership to elements that support the regime, while claiming that they were partners with their former colleagues that fled the country. Well since the regime has been successful to “transform” strong oppositions into loyal puppets opposing the opposition, by bribing out few individuals, the plagiarized tactics of Putin’s, buying out the media in order to turn it into a mouthpiece, might be in the process of being perfected in Ethiopia.

Improvising from Russia's Kremlin, Meles has also created news papers run by the intelligence services, such as the “Ethio Channel” which are fully dedicated to defaming and intimidating opposition figures and journalists. So far, Meles seems to have been successful in copying and implementing these tactics as several opposition figures and journalists have either fled the country or resorted to self censorship. Whether he will succeed like Lee and Putin in the long-run depends on the determination and effectiveness of the press, the democratic movement and the larger civil society. If democracy and freedom is to win in Ethiopia, these wicked political games need to be challenged and we ought to deny victory to tyranny.

Resistance, Resilience and Long Term Commitment is the way

I have this quote posted in my room.
“We will remain here and fight for freedom of expression to the very last,” he said. “We will not leave. I am sure the Ethiopian government would be happy to see us leave, to see us go into exile like the rest, but that is exactly what we will not do"

These are the words of Eskinder Nega, as reported by VOA's Peter Heinlein two years ago, regarding the government's refusal to issue them a permit to practice journalism in Ethiopia. Eskinder was one of several journalists who were jailed for a year and half following the 2005 election. His wife and fellow journalist, Serkalem Fasil, gave birth in prison. Their publishing house is also one of the four that the government has just re-charged in order to totally annihilate the courageous journalists.

I have no moral authority to judge Ethiopian journalists and opposition leaders that fled the country to escape from intimidation and harassment. But I think Eskinder is precisely right, that freedom of expression and the larger democratic struggle cannot be won if we all run away as the regime augments its authoritarianism. A senior official with links to the ruling party once told me that it’s the primary objective of the TPLF regime to drive its critics out of the country. Sarcastically, he told me that “the government would even pay hard-nosed critics to leave the country, once out of the county they would cry fool for a while to the international media, but once that dies down, we will be at peace”. Accordingly, the regime uses intimidation, harassment and threats to irritate and scare its critics. The situation would gradually escalate and the target would be told through “credible sources”, about an imminent imprisonment or a threat to his/ her life. To escape the said danger, the critic would flee the country. One enemy down for the regime!

The regime has been using these tactics since it came to power, and it seems to be working thus far. Defeating these tactics requires reversing it. That is to refuse to budge to threats or intimidation and remaining in the country no matter how difficult the situation might be. I understand it’s hypocritical to ask people to live under constant intimidation and threats, but before deciding to advocate for democratic rights within authoritarian system, one should be very clear from the outset about the dangers and prepare him/herself for the sacrifice. Journalism within the independent press and involvement in opposition politics should not be considered professions and activities that can be done while leading a normal life.

One cannot be a true and independent journalist unless he/she accepts and internalizes the dangers and risks that come with the profession under a rigid system, such as the one in Ethiopia. You cannot be an effective reformist or a human rights advocate unless you fully prepare yourself and willing to deal with the punishment that will inevitably come down from the system you aim to change. Tactics like the wise Oromo saying “Qabbanooftu harkaa, hoo'itu fal'ana” – using your hand when the food is cold and switching to the fork when it’s hot , do not work under authoritarian systems where interests and securities of the powerful are at stake.

Changing the system, winning freedom and defending human rights require a long term commitment and preparedness to suffer the consequences of advocacy. If one has such commitment and determination, no matter how long it takes and how painful the struggle may be, ultimately a willful resistance and resilience will erode the system and force it to crumble. As in most cases, the campaigner might not be around to see the end and enjoy the fruits, but the values of freedom and liberty will be victorious over the acts and forces of tyranny.

I say, welcome to the world of exile to Addis Neger journalists. I thank you for your superb service to the Ethiopian people in the last few years and your readers will truly miss your master journalism. Your departure along with the closure of Addis Neger is yet another blow to the dying press and a significant loss for democratic struggle in Ethiopia. After all, tyranny and free press hardly co-habit in harmony. One is the enemy of the other. At any cost, free press has to survive to expedite the death of tyranny that aspires to silence the whole nation.

Jawar Siraj Mohammed
December 7, 2009

jawarmd@gmail.com

Tadesse and Asaminew:

2009-12-13T09:43:00.000-08:00

Historic Parallels in Search for Justice within the Systems They Served

Generals Tadesse Birru and Asaminew Tsige are two soldiers separated by generation, ethnicity and political views. The former was an Oromo who was a senior general under Haile Silassie’s rule. The latter is an Amhara, who until very recently was a top general serving Meles Zenawi’s regime. Yet their life stories mirror each other as the unjust history of Ethiopia repeats itself. Both served as loyal soldiers of their respective systems until they realized how unjust and illegitimate their rulers were and rose up against them to bring about change. In the process, both generals suffered great humiliation and degradation at the hands of the very systems they protected for decades.

Tadesse Birru’s Legacy and his quest for Justice
General Tadesse Birru was one of the young men who fought the Italians alongside other patriots and was later jailed in Somalia. When the embattled Emperor returned to power, Tadesse joined the military together with other veterans of the resistance movement. Known for his bravery, discipline and hard work; he quickly rose through ranks, became a brigadier general and serving in the Ethiopian military for over 30 years.
A devout Christian and career soldier, General Tadesse Birru’s loyalty to the system was unquestionable. As a commander of “Fetno-Derash” or Special Forces, he played a crucial role in crushing the Neway brothers’ coup of 1960 and restoring the Emperor to power. He was a strong believer in Ethiopian unity and sovereignty. A Pan-Africanist who trained Nelson Mandela, General Tadesse Birru resisted both factionalism and ethnic partisanship, as evidenced by his initial rejection of an invitation to join the Macha Tulema Self-Help Association.
Determined to uplift and expand educational opportunities, General Tadesse Birru volunteered to lead the “Fidel Serawit”, a literacy campaign, in addition to his military duties. It was during this campaign that he encountered a life changing experience. Aklilu Habtewold, then prime minister of Ethiopia, not knowing General Tadesse Birru was an Oromo, suggested that it was unwise to educate or recruit Oromos to the military. Aklilu Habtewold said that doing so would mean sinking the empire under the Oromo ocean, an apparent reference to the large size of the Oromo population.
The prime ministers’ comments proved an eye-opener for the unsuspecting General. He realized the longstanding government policy to keep the Oromo uneducated and unempowered, in an effort to keep them away from the state power. Baffled by what he was hearing from the very government he served and defended, General Tadesse Birru decided to join the Macha Tulema Association and went on to become a prominent figure, a pioneer and the founding father of the Oromo national movement.
The much celebrated hero to millions of Oromos, General Tadesse Birru, advocated empowering the Oromo mass through education, modernizing their economy and infrastructure. He emphasized Oromo self-reliance as a primary means of development instead of dependence on the government with the sinister motive of keeping its own citizens in the dark. Although the sincere objective of General Tadesse Birru and the association was to build roads, schools and health centers, their attempt to unify and mobilize the Oromo for development was not welcomed by the government.
Prevented from working to educate his people, General Tadesse Birru along with other Oromo soldiers unsuccessfully attempted a coup in 1966, and was arrested along with many of his comrades. At an old age, General Tadesse Birru was severely tortured and was subjected to repeated ethnic slurs and ridicule. He was sentenced to death but later committed to life in prison, while his colleague Captain Mammo Mezemir, an aspiring young lawyer, historian and officer was hanged. Hailamariam Gemeda, a lawyer and the intellectual powerhouse of Mecha Tulema Association was tortured to death by the direct order of Haile Silassie himself. Seyfu Tesemma and Temesgen Haile were poisoned and assassinated, respectively. Daniel Abebe Aregay was killed by a “mysterious” midair explosion aboard his private plane.
On the occasion of his execution, Cpt. Mamo Mezemir told the hangman “Please tell my children that I did not die in vain. My blood is spilled for the just cause of the Oromo people. I am certain that those who falsely convicted me, for a crime I did not commit and their rulers, will receive the appropriate judgment of Ethiopian people at this very spot I am being hanged. More importantly, sooner or later, the Oromo people will win their freedom by the struggle of its fighters” This message remains one of the most vibrant inspirations within the Oromo movement four decades later.
The trial of the Mecha Tulama leaders revealed the ethnic prejudice in the Ethiopian system at its worst. The prosecutor asked to expropriate the properties owned by the defendants in addition to demanding the highest possible punishment handed down to the accused. Responding to the prosecutor, General Tadesse Birru wrote a historic letter to the court, saying that officers who were accused of attempted coup previously were never asked to give up their property. He argued that the government was taking the unprecedented and vindictive decision in order to uproot his family for the mere fact of his ethnicity. When it became clear that the judges were moved by the appeal, they were quickly replaced by hardliners before the verdict was reached. Thus, not only were the Mecha Tulema leaders were killed and incarcerated, their entire families were shattered. One can rightly argue that the vindictive ethnic-specific punishments directed against the founders have played a large role in radicalizing the Oromo movement and the subsequent formation of the OLF in 1973, leading to the current situation today.
New Rulers and New Victims - The Same Old Game
General Asaminew Tsige was a member of the Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (EPDM), which later became Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM). EPDM began as a splinter group from the left wing EPRP in 1980. In the late 1980s, the 37 founding members consolidated their guerilla units into several thousand strong-armed men. When EPDM joined the TPLF to form the EPRDF, Asaminew Tsige was one of the rebel commanders who led the fighters that ousted Mengistu Hailamariam and brought Meles Zenawi to power. He served as a soldier, in harm’s way for three decades, both during the rebellion and as a member of the federal military under two repressive systems.
One can argue that EPDM was formed by the more moderate faction of the EPRP. That is why at the time when the larger Amhara elites opposed TPLF, General Asaminew Tsige and others within their group were sympathetic to the struggle of the Tigrean people. They lived among the Tigrean peasants, they fought alongside Tigrean freedom fighters and the dead were buried together. After the collapse of the Dergue, even as TPLF continued to marginalize other ethnic groups, General Asaminew Tsige and others in EPDM hoped that democracy and genuine federalism could eventually take root in Ethiopia. It was with this hope that they saved Meles from the attempted ouster by Seeye’s group which was then considered a much more conservative Tigrean nationalist faction.
General Asaminew Tsige and his comrades were known for raising the question of equality and fairness with the EPRDF military and the system in general as critical supporters of the regime. Year after year, their calls and demands were left unanswered. To make matters worse, the regime expanded its discriminatory policies. After the 2005 election, their hope faded away when they became subject to constant harassment and isolation. Under the disguise that Amhara officers supported the Coalition for Unity and Democracy party in the election; ethnic slurs, demotions and character assassinations became part of the daily routine. Fed up with the humiliation, unwilling to continue taking part in an unbending system that dehumanizes his own people, General Asaminew Tsige and his comrades started raising issues with the ANDM leadership.
To no one’s surprise, the government responded by forcing the dissidents out of the army without any retirement benefits. Some among the group tried to find work for private firms, but the TPLF regime started intimidating the firms that employed the dismissed officers. Unable to support their families without any income, they formed an agricultural investment company and pleaded with the Amhara regional state for a piece of land. They were given 40 hectares of land at a place called PAWI.
When the TPLF got the news that the generals’ request for land grant was approved by the regional government, land that the Ethiopian regime was ironically selling at a bargain price to “foreign investors”, the regime forced the regional investment office to revoke the land grant under a false pretext that ‘the land belonged to ‘some farmers’.
General Asaminew Tsige, a commander who was denied the right to serve his country or live a peaceful life in retirement, might have decided to organize his comrades and challenge the repressive system. Knowing the potential danger of having such a highly respected general as opposition, the regime trumped up false charges and arrested him along with several high ranking Amhara officers, and purged tens of thousands of Amhara officers and soldiers. Reportedly, General Asaminew Tsige was severely tortured, and lost his left eye in prison. He endured not just physical but also psychological torture. The torturers hurled ethnic insults directed at his Amhara ethnicity in much the same way General Tadesse Birru was treated under the Emperor’s rule. At the time when he was supposed to enjoy retirement and reap the benefits of his long years of service, General Asaminew Tsige was subjected to humiliation by his ex-comrades whom he once supported, at the expense of being ostracized by his own ethnic group.
Meles Zenawi and his collaborators, including the kangaroo court, were so malicious that they deliberately planned the sentencing of the Amhara officers on the 29th birthday of the EPDM, to infuriate ANDM members. According to eye-witness accounts of the court proceedings, the main judge, Assefa Abraha, a Tigrean, was acting with more fervor and animosity than the prosecutors, and questioned witnesses even after the prosecutors rested their case. One cannot expect a free and fair judgment from such a skewed process. But the manner in which ANDM soldiers were handled, including torture, insult and degradation, will serve nothing but to radicalize the Amhara opposition.
History is a Prologue: We Must Break the Cycle
As you know it’s likely that my political views might be quite different from that of General Asaminew Tsige and his comrades. But long time ago, the anti-Nazi German pastor Martin Niemöller wrote:
“First they came for the communists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a communist;
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist;
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew;
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak out for me.”
The two generals served their country but were victims of different authoritarian systems. General Tadesse Birru served an Amhara-dominated system, and was brutalized by the ruling clique which was using the Amhara as a shield to indefinitely remain in power. The cruel actions taken against Macha Tulema Association and its leaders gave rise to an animosity between Amhara and the Oromo elites that lives on to this day.
General Asaminew Tsige served a Tigrean-dominated regime and was humiliated simply because he said NO to continued discrimination. Today, Meles Zenawi continues to torture and degrade him and his Amhara comrade soldiers in an effort to increase the animosity between the Amhara and Tigrean groups. Meles Zenawi’s goal is that the latter will continue to feel insecure and remain loyal defenders of the system.
But I remind the current rulers that Haile Silassie persecuted, isolated and eliminated those who demanded modest reform. leading the country to collapse under a poorly managed revolution, unnecessary bloodshed and the rise of a military junta. Predictably, those who surrounded and advised the emperor against reform, due to fear of losing their personal power, wealth and influence, were not only the first victims of their own making, but they established the conditions leading to the rise of the psychopathic military ruler that succeeded them to massacre the best and brightest sons and daughters the country had at the time.
It is critical that we end this dangerous and century old ploy of authoritarian regimes who plant seeds of hatred among the people of Ethiopia in order to derail reform and remain in power. If there is any hope of establishing a genuine, democratic and stable country, we must break this cycle of pitting one group against the other. The ‘rule of law’ must prevail in our country if its citizens are to live in peace and harmony.
A Legitimate Grievance Deserves a Genuine Answer
In my opinion, this is a political case that needs a political resolution, and not a kangaroo court process. Substantive political reforms are the only way out of this quagmire that the ruling elite find itself in. Even if the ANDM officers were found with circumstantial evidence of organizing themselves to challenge the system, the TPLF should look back to the history of its own ‘national struggle’ and imagine what it would have done in a similar circumstance. It is clear that the TPLF has transgressed on its promise to balance the ethnic composition of the defense forces, and that policy has brought these ANDM officers to fight for justice in a way they saw it fit. In the court hearings, the officers have made public that they organized themselves because they reached a point where they could not accept the ethic discrimination within the army they served for so many years. Penalizing the victims of a skewed government policy cannot be justice by any standard.
If Meles Zenawi is interested in restoring confidence and trust within the system, the system has to be merciful to the officers and show clemency to General Asaminew Tsige and his comrades. If he does not heed this call for ‘clemency’, Meles Zenawi will undoubtedly face a much more radicalized ‘Amhara’ opposition, both within the army and amonst the bureaucrats at the regional level. Given the level of financial and economic problems citizens are currently facing, such radicalization could lead to unforeseen circumstances that could well boil down to a large scale unrest and strife.
Some folks within the Tigrean community hope that TPLF will hold on to power for some time to come. They believe that through a consistent reform and liberalization process, they will change the ethnic imbalance within the government’s civilian and military structure and save Tigreans from the hatred and antagonism they feel from other Ethiopians. They see the ‘Code of Conduct’ signed between Hailu Shawel and the ruling party as indicative of the progress that will ultimately reduce the ethnic tensions between the two communities and deliver on the hope of reform.
What these genuinely well-meaning people do not understand is that nothing of substance has been achieved beyond Meles and Hailu’s handshakes. Behind the scenes, the regime has intensified “ethnic cleansing” against the Amharas through mass purging of soldiers and bureaucrats. Some analysts suggest that since ANDM’s rank and file have deserted him, Meles Zenawi is trying to warn them that they can be replaced by Hailu’s group. Unfortunately, people know that with nothing to offer to his supporters and well-wishers, Hailu cannot garner the support of the Amhara and urban dwellers. He can easily be discarded as an accomplice to the ethnic ‘apartheid’ system. The agreement is a lose-lose deal for both Meles and Hailu.
Authentic and genuine reforms are needed to cool the ethnic tensions in the country. I believe this is the last opportunity for the TPLF to embark on a reforms agenda. The Tigrean elite aligned with regime should seriously and carefully reflect on the ever worsening tension in Ethiopia and its possible outcomes. For anyone, including foreigners, who have been to Finfinne in the last few years, it is hard to miss the anti-Tigrean climate that is brewing due to the regime’s increasingly dangerous apartheid policies. It is a precarious condition for ethnic Tigreans; it’s disastrous for all of us. It should not be allowed to continue. The Tigrean elite should take the lead in challenging and pressuring the regime to change its attitudes and policies.
Meles should have the courage to begin these political reforms, because he is well positioned to legitimize his rule in the coming May 2010 elections. Through his many arrogant mistakes and wrong calculations, he has created unprecedented level of ethnic animosity against the Tigreans. He has let down the “golden” people who sacrificed tens of thousands of their sons and daughters to bring him to power. For the sake of these people, to show last minute respect to his fallen comrades and to let them rest in peace and dignity, he should remove this cloud of isolation and fear from his people. It is only fear of the unknown that stops him from reaching this goal. What Meles has to fear is fear itself. There is NO other road than the way of substantive political reforms, a road less travelled in Ethiopian history, to legitimize power, unlock the dangers of ethnic strife, and free Tigreans from the tension they feel in their everyday life.
As we embrace for this holiday season, let’s remember our political prisoners and if our income allows, let’s extend our helping hand to their loved ones.

Jawar Mohammed,
jawarmd@gmail.com

Underestimating, Misunderstanding, and Mishandling the Power of Nationalism

2009-12-13T09:41:00.000-08:00

A Rejoinder to Professor Messay’s Response

Although this debate began because Professor Messay claimed the ideology of self determination is to be blamed for OLF's lack of success in the past two decades, he has not shown any evidence to back up his assertion. He has not provided us with a single case where the “right” ideology resulted in success and “bad” ideology led to the failure of insurgency, nor does he explain how exactly advocating for the right to self determination weakened the OLF. Even though I have shown cases where organizations advocating similar ideology produced different results, he refuses to accept that organizational efficiency is primarily a result of strategy and committed leadership. Instead his two articles focused on pointing out the deficiency of self determination as an ideology and he seems to be attempting to drag me into this ideological debate. I refused to engage in such a debate because my article which he reacted to took no side on the ongoing ideological debate. I concluded that ideology was not among the major factors that hindered the organization’s performance.

Reading through Professor Messay’s two essays I have come to realize that the various points he discussed arise from his distaste for “ethnic politics” in general and for the OLF in particular. I believe it is unhelpful to assess organizational performance based on our ideological preferences as doing so would take away our objectivity. Failure or success of an organization should be evaluated based on stated objectives not using  what the analyst thinks is a right objective. In my views it is this lack of objectivity that leads many individuals and groups to underestimate, misunderstand and mishandle nationalist movements. In this essay I would like to briefly discuss this issue.

Underestimating Nationalism: OLF’s Ideology, Success beyond Expectation or Bankruptcy?

I challenge Professor Messay’s repeated declaration that OLF’s ideology is bankrupt. I think such an assumption is quite far from reality. Assuming that the ideology he is referring to is the “nationalist agenda”, neither me nor the professor would have been interested in debating this issue had Oromo nationalism not been the most powerful political mobilizing force that is likely to determine the future of the Ethiopian state. Had the OLF ideology failed, there would not exist a land known as Oromia in country where once it was shameful to identify yourself as an Oromo. Had this ideology bankrupted, some 20 million children would not be studying in Afan Oromo, in a place where it was taboo and a sign of backwardness to speak this language.

It’s my understanding that a political ideology is said to be bankrupted when it fails to attract supporters. Yet when we look at OLF’s “nationalist agenda”, it enjoys an incredible level of support across all sectors of the Oromo people despite the very poor performance of the organization. In fact, one can rightly argue that OLF’s biggest accomplishment("s") since its inception is artfully articulating and developing Oromo nationalism. The evidence for this is the fact that, although they differ on ways and means of achieving the goal, all Oromo political forces share a unanimous rejection and determination to fight cultural domination, political repression, social alienation and economic exploitation. That is why Oromo nationalists remain the number one threat to the current regime for the last two decades and as a result they make up over 95% of political prisoners as testified by several Ethiopians. This fact will continue to be the case as long as identity based injustice remains the rule of the game.
Hence, unless one kid  himself/herself for the sake of the argument, OLF’s ideology has been a success beyond expectation. What led to success of this ideology is clear, it is incredible level of cultural, economic and social repressions by successive tyrants that backfired and broadened alienation of the Oromo and strengthened the spreading of nationalism.
Anyone interested in making practical influence on Ethiopian politics knows that it has long become impossible either to maintain or change the status quo without taking this force into consideration. That is why forces who oppose the demands of Oromo nationalism, both the ruling party and opposition groups, continue to make gradual concession to soften the nationalist position and win their alliances. Cornered with ever increasing uprising, the regime has been instituting reforms such as increasing local autonomy in Oromia and allowing expansion of Afaan Oromo both in academia and in the media. It is to be remembered that hundreds of students were killed in the last decade for these demands to be met. On the other side, opposition groups who in 2005 used the excuse of “no ethnic politics” either to ignore the issue or rally against the gains of the Oromo movement, now have made a U-turn by embracing the reality as it is shown with their swift acceptance of Afaan Oromo as a national language.Remembering that a few    years back, some of those individuals organized a rally in Washington DC opposing the extension of time for Afaan Oromo on the VOA, their current move is an encouraging step that should be embraced by Oromo nationalists.

I encourage people to take off their vale of fear for the rising tide of Oromo and acknowledge the many positive contribution this movement had brought for Ethiopians as a whole. Its the awakening of the giant that forced successive regimes  to remove state sponsored cultural and linguistic genocidal policy against the South. Without the awakening of the giant, oppressed minorities of the South would still be called “bariya” , “Shanqilla”, “Walamo” and so on by the state media who degrades them while relying on their wealth for financing.
When we speak of Oromo nationalism and its demands, the ‘self-mutilation’ the Professor wants to discuss also has to be analyzed historically. The Oromo are only a demographic majority but has always been a political and social minority. Just 35 years ago a majority of “Ethiopians” never acknowledged that a people called the “Oromo” lived in the greater part of Ethiopia, and that it constitutes of humans with certain dignities  and inalienable rights. Thanks to the Oromo nationalists and the Ethiopian student movement, and as well as the sacrifices made by the Left, now the “Gimatam Galla” is accepted as a dignified “Oromo”. There are still remnants of the old, including the Woyane security, who push for an anti-Oromo stand-up comedy in Finfine, but their days are closing. Now, in the third millennia, after notable achievements by the struggle, if Ethiopians demand that Oromo nationalists move to the center and take leadership of democratizing and strengthening unity of the country, that is an understandable quest. But this demand for 'taking the leadership' will not echo as genuine, if one purports to demean and destroy  Oromo nationalism which brought the movement to the respected position it finds itself now. Oromo nationalist will heed the call for "move to the center" if and only if that 'call' is supported by empathy and understanding the sacrifices they made up to this point. Otherwise it sounds like an "Arada"call that lacks genuinety.

That is also why Professor Messays’ call for unity while accusing me of an Amhara hater, without any evidence whatsoever, is a wrong approach. In the typical paternalistic fashion of elites of the dominant culture, he advises me saying “what keeps you in chains is the diatribe against Amhara, Abyssinians and the correlated discourse on the Ethiopian colonization of the Oromo.” Since the Professor is willing to sacrifice facts and along the way his honor, to defend his own ‘ideology', he seems to have been forced to misrepresent me, while I am alive. I have no diatribe against the Amhara, nor a hang-up on a colonial theory, these are just mind creations of the Professor to appear as the ultimate defender of Ethiopia’s unity. One thing I want to say, however is that, Ethiopia is an unfinished project. All of us have a role in its final shape. But for this to happen the minimum code of conduct is to listen to each other, to feel each other’s pain, and to represent the facts as they are without misrepresenting them. The tactics and machinations which foiled the Ethiopian Student Movement and all the political movements that came in its wake are outmoded and tested by our joint failure to advance mutual understanding. We should try a new way, a new beginning.

Misunderstanding Sources of Nationalism: Elite Manipulation or Manifestation of Grievances?

Highly dismissive of the real cause of nationalism – which is identity based injustice – Professor Messay repetitively accuses “ethnic” elites for manipulating their people. Speaking of Oromo nationalism he asserts that “… what Jawar presents as a fact is not yet a fact; it is an elitist manipulation that uses past mistreatment to justify partition.” What I do not understand is how about the state backed, institutionalized and often violent “counter manipulation” orchestrated by those who oppose these “ethnic” elites? Wasn’t the entire field of academia and state institution exclusively controlled by the “unity or death” group for most part of the 20th century? Has the professor ever thought why a bunch of young college kids were able to convert peasant grievance into nationalism fueled revolutionary force and topple the guys with the “right” idea and the finest army? Why did “ethnic” movements outlive class struggle? It is too easy to dismiss nationalism as “elite manipulation” but we know that such approach has not helped in the past forty years. What those who advocate “unity-at-all-cost” fail to understand are that their violent, disrespectful and often chauvinistic approach to quell ethnic discontent helps fuel nationalism rather than defuse it.
I argued that, it’s not some abstract ideological aspiration that gave birth to ethnic based rebellion, but rather it was identity based political repression, economic exploitation and cultural subjugation. Thus, Eritreans, Tigreans, Oromos and others supported their perspective liberation front’s not because their elites were so effective in making the peasants study Stalin's work, but because the people were yearning for an end to repression by any means necessary.
It’s this misunderstanding of the source of nationalism which leads the professor to give too much credit   to Stalin on the raise of nationalism. For instance he says “According to the Stalinist vision, the liberation of the ethnic group has precedence over the consideration of unity with other groups” I am not a student of Stalin, but I never came across any research that puts Stalin as a good friend of nationalists. On the contrary, Stalin is well known for persecuting his own “Georgian” nationalists, because he ardently believed that the class solidarity of the workers takes precedence over the nationalist interest of the bourgeoisie. As an old student of Stalin, how could the Professor miss this fact? When fact and logic are thrown out the window, it seems there is no turning back but misrepresenting others is also acceptable because it serves a ‘higher purpose’ that of ‘maintaining unity at all costs’. But when trust is sacrificed to win, we will make ourselves the second Meles Zenawi of a different brand.
In connection to this, another issue which the professor keeps bringing up, but fails to substantiate with evidence, is the correlation between leftist ideology, nationalism, secessionism and   armed struggle. He asserts that leftist ideology is responsible for growth of “ethnic” nationalism, secessionist demand, and armed struggle. This theoretical argument could have been persuasive four decades ago when the debate was based on assumptions, but now all those assumptions and theories have been tested and we have the benefit seeing real case studies that have made constructing imagined theories unnecessary. The world has been full of secessionist movements that do not advocate Leninist politics. There have been  leftist movements who are  not secessionist. There have been several secessionist struggles that are not armed. Here are some of the examples that debunk the said correlation.
The Tibetan movement is a secessionist one but it is neither Leninist nor armed, the same is true for Quebecois secessionist movement in Canada.
The Farc in Columbia is a leftist armed group but it is not secessionist, the same is true for the Moist in Nepal
The BJP in India is an ultra-right wing Hindu nationalist movement which is neither armed nor leftist.
Far left movements have taken power in several Latin American countries without armed struggle.
At home front, EDU was a feudal party engaged in armed struggle opposing socialism, while EPRP was a leftist armed movement but it was not “ethnic” nationalist.
Many more of such cases can be listed. Therefore the reality is that movements, be it secessionists or those who want to reform an existing state, pick up guns when they think that all other venues and means of advancing their cause are no longer on the table or they avoid armed struggle when they do not see comparative strategic advantage in violent uprising. Hence, Professor Messay is making a very wild conclusion.
The issue of armed struggle leading to subordination has not been the rule as well. The Zimbabweans and South Africans were trained by Ethiopia, but never made them Ethiopia’s satellite. The EPLF was assisted by the West, but it never succumbed to their interest. Maoist China was assisted by Stalin’s Soviet Union, but it didn’t lead to China’s subordination as well. Hence Professor Messay’s argument that getting assistance from foreigners during the armed struggle will necessarily lead to subordination is not supported by life and experience. It’s worth noting here that my criticism of OLF's relation with Eritrea is based on the nature of the relationship whereby there is neither strategic benefit due to distance from the battlefront, nor has  there been tangible financial and logistical support. Worse, being in Eritrea, the leadership insulated itself from pressure and also became a hostage that cannot make independent strategic and institutional decisions.

Mishandling Nationalism: Redress or Repress Grievance
Nationalism is like boiling water, the pot is the repressive system, the heat is repression and grievance is its steam. The solution to such a problem depends at what stage the movement is or how hot the pot is. At an  early stage, for instance, you defuse the tension by reducing the heat so you can prevent stream formation. If you miss the first stage and steam has formed, then you must use a combination of strategies which might include reducing the heat, adding cold water and loosening the cover. If it passes that stage, you have no control over the situation as either the pot will explode or the cover could be blown off.
Unfortunately, those who oppose nationalism often increase the pressure instead of systematically defusing such tension. At every stage they increase the heat by stepping repression  which helps spreading resentment and galvanizing the oppressed. This often happens because of the gross underestimation of the potential force of grievance. By the time rulers realize their backers the real nature of the problem, they are no longer in the position to influence the outcome.
For instance so much resource and sacrifice was paid to keep Eritrea as part of Ethiopia but the effort was fruitless. Every attempt to crush the movement backfired, strengthening the rebels and further radicalizing their determination. To defuse the Eritrean nationalism and maintain the integrity of the country, Mengistu Hailemariam and his “Abiyotawi Ethiopia or Death” supporters could have negotiated for “Federation”, well before the political will for such consideration became null. And such an outcome wouldn’t have become considered a ‘defeat’ as the Professor suggested. It would have been a win-win situation. In fact, in 1981 EPLF had made the proposal for such negotiation, but was not accepted by the Dergue because it was believed EPLF was initiating a “referendum” talk because it was weakened militarily. The Professor should have learnt from his own experience from the Dergue years, that 'politics is the art of compromise' and not a place to shine with high sounding slogans.

The Way A Head

One might dislike the OLF or another might wish that Oromo nationalism never came to surface. These are good wishes given we add that the repressive systems that gave birth to the movement should have never existed at the first place. Now we have to deal with the reality. Oromo nationalism is a reality and we better come to terms with it and develop a strategy so that it can be channeled towards the common good. I believe that Oromo nationalism, properly understood, effectively organized and led by committed and visionary leadership, could be the greatest force, in cooperation with other movements, that can uplift the country and the wider region from the never ending crisis.

Towards this I propose that opponents and proponents of the movement understand the situation for what it is: Oromo Nationalism is borne out of identity-based injustice by successive regimes that culturally subjugated and ridiculed the Oromo reducing them to subhuman condition on their own land. It’s also a manifestation of grievance from economic marginalization of these people by forces who exploit their resources. Thus, opponents of this movement should understand that such social dynamics cannot fade away under repression or by condescending slogans such as extremism, tribalism or cover up of historical injustice. If those Ethiopians who genuinely lose their sleep over the balkanization of their country, love it earnestly and wish for a better future, they must embrace reality and work towards bringing a democratic, fair and integrated country. In short a justice based on fairness. Oromo nationalists should also know that the objective of the movement is not to “defeat” the oppressor, but to uplift our people. As such we need to overcome our bitterness that was caused by fresh scars of a century long process of dehumanization. As Paulo Freire nicely put it “the great humanistic and historical task of the oppressed is to liberate themselves and their oppressors as well". It is not enough to blame others for all the wrongs and expect difference; we must take leadership to bring about mutual understanding. I hope to say more on this in my upcoming essays.

Jawar Siraj Mohammed [jawarmd@gmail.com]

“Let's be like the market”. Sure but what if the market is monopolized?

2009-12-13T05:47:00.000-08:00

An open letter to Dr Eleni Gebere-Medhin

By Jawar Siraj Mohammed
Stanford University
Dear Dr Eleni,

I just finished reading an article you recently wrote titled “Let’s be like the Market” in which you made a passionate call to your critics not to engage in destructive ethnic bigotry but rather focus on rebuilding a country in need of grass root economic development. You have stressed the importance of being like the market – a market that does not care about who is selling and who is buying but what is sold and for how much, hence we should not judge people based on their identity but by their characters and deeds. In an ideal world, I agree with you. But what if the market is imperfect, distorted, manupulated and has been for the most part monopolized by a single company or group? Can you still advocate embracing such an imperfect market?

To me the problem in Ethiopia is not only the fragmentation of ethnic diversity per se, it’s rather the manner in which those several ethnic groups have been unjustly brought under one state and are ruled. When people with different cultures and views live side by side, in the absence of effective interaction, it’s natural for them to make assumptions about the other. When such neighboring groups compete over resources, or when there is conflict of interest, those assumptions develop into prejudices and bigotry. Therefore, assumption, prejudices and bigotry are present in any diverse society and they often die out as interaction and interdependence among communities increase. But if and when one group dominates its neighbors and imposes its cultural, political and economic will, those preexisting assumptions and prejudices become fertile ground for dehumanization, discrimination and exploitation. In other words, what we call racism today is a situation in which the powerful suppresses the powerless based on those preexisting social differences.

Everyone knows that Ethiopia was built by one group subjugating the rest, and ignoring that history will not help everyone to get along. Therefore, from the very beginning, the market was imperfect. This imperfection continued to worsen as the subjugating group further monopolized the market, by strengthening its own cultural, linguistic and economic domination. I hope your wonderful grandmother has told you about Minelik's soldier in Hararghe when they used to own at least 10 families including their land, property and lives. All members of that family worked on their land and gave the product to their owner. That monopoly lasted almost a century, and put the then powerful group ahead of the subjugated, and much of the problems and disparities we are facing today are the product of such imperfect beginnings. Can you imagine what a market monopolized by a single company for such a long time would look like? The Ethiopian market today remains as imperfect as before if not worse. The only difference is that it is monopolized by a new company. Therefore, in a country where the system has been monopolized by one group or another for over a century, and the majority has been severely repressed, marginalized, exploited and dehumanized, we cannot simply wish away bigotry and ethnic hatred – We must face it head on and deal with it.

Let me go straight to my point. It is because of this monopolistic market that people automatically assume you are a Tigrean. By they way you are not the first to be a victim of such erroneous assumptions and deliberate mislabel. Dr Nagaso Gidada was called Negsi Giday and once it was widely rumored that Dr Brehanu Nega was a brother of Sebehat Nega. Some of the reasons why people either assume or label individuals working with the current government as Tigrean is as follows:

First, it is an undeniable fact that the current system, be it political or economic, is fully dominated by the Tigrean elites loyal to the regime. From the oligarchy enterprise known as EFFORT that has taken a big chunk of the market to all real political power posts within bureaucracy, military and security apparatus, the regime has deliberately and openly excluded individuals of other ethnic groups from the system and filled it with Tigreans. Therefore, when a new and potentially powerful entity like ECX surfaced, it was unthinkable for people to imagine a non Tigrean would be allowed to run it. People automatically assumed that it’s just another entity established to run a new kind of scam.

The second reason is that as a product of the 70's radical left, the elites of all ethnic backgrounds and political grouping are accustomed to using labels and conspiracy theories as the primary weapon of discrediting whomever they disagree with. As you probably know, the ruling oligarchy is mercilessly notorious for using people, especially “outsiders”, as use-and-throw

Learning from Not So Distant Past: Would ECX Perfect the Market or Would it Strengthen the Monopoly?

When I first heard about ECX I was excited on its potential to transform the grain market but I was also worried about problems you would face from two sides. One, from the larger public who have been excessively exploited by the regime over the last two decades that they have lost trust in any institution run by the government. Two, from the very regime that is known for taking advantage of genuine individuals like yourself to advance its narrow economic and political agenda.

I hope my fear will not be realized and you succeed in fulfilling your dream of making ECX a great market place. But growing up under this government, I am too familiar with its scams and injustices that I cannot help but remain suspicious. I share the fear that ECX will become just another facet through which the regime will systematically impose its market monopoly and force independent businesses out of the market as it has done since it came to power.

Here is a recent historical reflection: There was a farmers’ cooperative in Hararaghe known as East Oromia which was engaged in trading jimaa (khat). The regime, eyeing the luxurious jimaa business, falsely labeled the cooperative as an OLF property, and decided to “nationalize” it. However, it was not really nationalized in a real sense but the finance and operation of the cooperation was simply transferred to Dinsho, a company owned by the ruling party. Former board members and officers of the cooperative have been killed or are languishing in jail. Today Dinsho has been bankrupted and the jimaa business is believed to be owned by none other than the Prime Minister’s wife and is estimated to earn hundreds of millions of dollars per year. To make sure that the business would not be scrutinized and disturbed, the prime minster directly intervened and “federalized” the entire Awaday district so that the company would not have to pay tax to the Oromian regional government. This is as free as the current market is in Ethiopia.

Because I have heard and witnessed so many stories about such scams and injustices, I was not surprised when all of a sudden you were ordered to trade the coffee that was “nationalized” from the six renowned business people. I cannot believe for a minute that coffee was nationalized because of “hoarding" as it was claimed by the government. It was said that those businesses hoarded coffee to wait for better pricing, but since the world coffee market has been fluctuating for quite a long time how come a corrective measure hasn’t been taken before. And, most importantly why now and why through ECX that was supposedly established to trade grains?

I believe that the ruling oligarchy robbed those business people for one simple reason; the coffee business was the only major sector that was not monopolized by companies owned by the ruling clique or EFFORT. This has been done to several other major businesses in the past. For instance, there was a business man in Finfinne who was one of the most respected business people since the emperor's era. He was believed to be one of the first people to import fertilizer. His business was so important for the country that even the communist junta did not nationalize it. When the current regime came and began expanding its business monopoly, they wanted to take the fertilizer market as well, due to its profitability and more importantly to make farmers directly dependent on the ruling party. But there was one problem, the old business man and his company had been so established that he had strong loyal suppliers and consumers. First, the regime tried to push the man out of business through competition. A tax exempt company got established to bid and import fertilizer. But the old man kept winning. You won't believe what they did next. They told him that he can import the fertilizer but had to share the profit with them. The man, being a conservative businessman of the old days, rejected their demand. At last they simply moved on him, seized his entire property and forced him into exile. At the age when he should be sharing his experience and wisdom with aspiring young business minds, he lives in a foreign land, while those who robbed him have been relaxing and enriching themselves on the very land where his umbilical cord was buried. Then who should we be surprised when owners of EFFORT publicly claim that itit is the biggest company in Ethiopia if not all of Africa, after all the oligarchy was built by properties gained through such daylight robbery.

Beyond The Horizon: We Must Face and Deal with the Imperfection Before We Embrace the Market
Ethnic diversity, prejudice and bigotry are not the real issues why people question your identity, therefore while your call to be like the market is correct it is not realistic in a condition in which the market is so imperfect and highly monopolized by a few cliques. Can this market be perfected? Yes and it better be. How?

The first thing to do is to recognize and acknowledge that Ethiopia was built and has been sustained on discriminatory system where the majority has been marginalized from the economic and political affairs. . And also it's essential to admit that the current government is run by powerful business oligarchy that has been using ethno-racist policies to monopolize and exploit Ethiopia's economy for the exclusive benefit of a few individuals. Let me be clear here. I do not believe the current system is serving ordinary Tigreans, but the small clique that runs the country has been using Tigrean nationalism to hide their sinister personal motives. The Tigrean people themselves are the victim of this system. The ever increasing anti-Tigrean sentiment within some segment of the society is the product of deliberate and calculated move by the ruling oligarchy that have been promoting racist policies to anger and agitate other ethnic groups. The oligarchy believes that facing hostility, the Tigrean people would be isolated and insecure that they remain loyal to the system. Thus, the current anti-Tigrean sentiment can only be contained from spreading to the wider society if this regime is stopped from implementing racist policies. As long as these individuals and their policies remain, bigotry and ethnic tension will persist or even increase making it difficult for people like you to serve their people without distraction.

Solving this problem requires two approaches, I) Political solution by democratizing the country which will free the market by breaking the monopoly of a single group over the economic and political system and making it accessible to all. II) Promoting integration through grass root social activism. These two approaches will gradually create an environment free of ethnic and class prejudices and bigotry through self-actualization and innovative indigenous social engineering.

Let me explain. Much has been debated about the correlation between economic development and democracy. Some have persuasively argued, using the Asian Tigers as example, saying that regimes strength and stability, not democracy, is more important for economic growth. That might be true in few countries where their society is more or less homogeneous. In my view, in such an ethnically fragmented country like Ethiopia, an authoritarian system can never be strong and sustainable because it always creates presumably advantaged and disadvantaged ethnic groups – leading to permanent tension and instability. This is because the primordial ethnic differences and grievances make it easy for elites to create and mobilize an ethnic support base. As a matter of fact the current regime is a clear example of this phenomenon and , even the communist Derg did not escape the perception of being an Amhara government. As long as a regime uses an ethnic support base or perceived to prefer a particular group, those who feel disadvantaged will move into an opposition camp. More dangerously , in the absence of democracy and rule of law – hey often use violent methods. This eventually widens ethnic fragmentation and polarization.

For a positive, transnational and courageous people like you to succeed in using your wealth of knowledge, experience and wisdom to help the people of Ethiopia without distraction, the current polarization and exclusiveness needs to be replaced by an environment that is based on mutual business trust which is the anchor of any enterprise and free market. This can only be done by democratizing the state and establishing an all inclusive government. Successive authoritarianism has allowed small but well organized vocal and vicious groups to monopolize politics both in the ruling groups and their opponents. Seasoned and rational individuals have abandoned the field of political dialogue due to the kind of smear tactics that was thrown at you. The silent majority has either abandoned the country or has chosen a “non-political” way of helping the country like you are doing now. But for genuine people to make practical, stable and sustainable difference in the country, it is essential for the political system itself to be stable and progressive. Any authoritarian regime is doomed to fail no matter how long it lasts. The longer it remains in power, the more likely that it would face a violent demise With the fall of such a regime, the succeeding group often destroys whatever positive institutions that were left by the previous one and starts from ground zero. We have seen this during the past two successions. The current rulers do not seem to have learned any valuable h lesson from their predecessors. So I fear that, the few great institution such as ECX that have been built through such hard work might become the victim of a new cycle of showdown.

Finally, in no way I am trying to discourage you from doing the great work. In fact I see you as a role model for all Africans including myself. I disagree with those who advocate for completely boycotting the country because of the nature of this regime. I strongly believe that the problems of the country can only be solved from within. Let me share with you a story a friend told me. A man came across an old lady searching outside her house for a needle she lost inside. The man asked her why she was looking outside if she lost it inside. Her response was that there is no light inside. The man asked " what is easier, finding light for your house or searching outside where you know the needle is not there?" The situation in our country is similar, there are too many problems, but the solution must come from inside not outside. You are trying to do exactly that.

However it's also very crucial that, while lighting up her house, the woman I mentioned above works on properly covering her roof so that the next rain will not take out the light. She also needs to clean her house so that next time she drops a needle it does not get lost in the midst of the trash. Similarly while returning home to solve gigantic economic problems is important, we need to make sure that we tackle the root cause of poverty and ethnic tension, which is the monopoly of the politics and economy by self-anointed dictators and the disenfranchisement of the majority. Any activity should be directly or indirectly aimed at solving this root cause, and we need to be careful that our actions do not prolong the rein of tyrants. In light of this, the direction EXC is heading is not clear. It has a huge potential to solve the market stagnation and catalyze innovative entrepreneurship. On the contrary, it can also become an important mechanism in which the ruling oligarchy can expand its monopoly over the market and increase the already rampant dependency of the farmers on the state. So far the later seems the case, but I urge you to not let that happen.

Respectfully,

Jawar
I can be reached at jawarmd@gmail.com

Failure to Deliver: The Journey of the Oromo Liberation Front in the Last Two Decades Part IV

2009-12-13T05:45:00.000-08:00

PART IV: The So What Question: My Ten-Cent Recommendations

In this essay I believe I have shown the cause and extent of the OLF’s deterioration, and how futile any attempt to resurrect it would be. I am sure that even those who agree with me will ask what I might suggest for a solution. There is no simple and right answer that can be detailed in this piece. However, for a starter, I would like to suggest few.
For those who live abroad, the first step is to understand that their role in the movement is limited to the crucial role of supporting the struggle back home. This could be either in the form of material contribution or by being the voice for their suppressed brethren. But they must refrain from overstepping their duty and sucking out the energy from the home front.
The politics and resources of the Diaspora have been effectively monopolized by the OLF over the past two decades. Despite its failure to deliver any meaningful result, the OLF has used the emotions and aspirations of the people to collect millions of dollars. It’s quite common to see a taxi driver or a janitor give a thousand dollar without any hesitation. Oromos have to stop investing their hard earned dollar to organizations that bring them no return. Such investment must be conditional on results, excellence, progress and accountability.

Furthermore, the Diaspora, by funding competing faction, has been fueling forces of disintegration. If the Diaspora is serious about helping the Oromo movement, they must channel their support towards organizations and individuals who are operating at the homeland. In addition to systematic problem, the two Oromo parties in Oromia, remain weak because they have no access to the Diaspora resources that their counterparts heavily benefit from. By monopolizing the Diaspora, the OLF has systematically prevented those parties from tapping into the resources abroad. Who should be supported, one that actually is facing the hardship with the people, and doing something no matter how small it might be , or those who have shown nothing positive but destruction? If one does not agree with the politics and methods of those organizations, why not finance the education of one Oromo student rather than throw his money into the fire that is destroying the fabrics of his people?
Similarly, those at home must realize that, there is nothing coming from outside to save them from the jaws of the oppressive regime. No country or people have ever won their freedom by an exiled organization and leadership. The youth have to realize that they must write their own destiny. No organization holds the key to the future. Organizations come, organizations die, and it is a matter of fact. They must face this reality head-on, and mobilize the public through grassroots movements to defeat the exploitive and ethno-racist regime.
The OLF has sucked in and destroyed the best and the brightest of Oromo student leaders in the past decade, this got to stop. Each young Oromo, both at home and abroad, needs to build him or herself economically and intellectually. This will help avoid the dependency trap many Oromos within OPDO fallen into. Economic security is essential for free thinkers and independent organizations, to this end entrepreneurship must be nurtured to facilitate the emergence of the Oromo middle class that is lacking today. We must get over the one-formula-fits-all thinking as our struggle requires multifaceted approach.

Conclusion

“Man has no property in man; neither has any generation a property in the generations which are to follow.” Said the forgotten founding father of the United States. Our elders, the generation that drew the program of the OLF, the generation that produced Qubee, the glorious youth of the 70’s who paid the ultimate price to free us from mental and physical bondage deserves our utmost respect. They will forever be remembered as the generation that saved the beautiful Oromo nation from complete destruction. We are their product, we are proud of being their successors. But it is a serious mistake for our elders to expect us to adhere to the same old ways of doing business, to not challenge and disregard what is inapplicable and unacceptable to the world of our time. The OLF is clearly an organization of the past, its model, organizational structure and dogma is outdated. The front has outlived its purposefulness and it has been allowed to derail and distract the movement for too long.
My generation must write its own destiny. We can learn from our elders’ wisdom and experience, but this generation shall not be held hostage to the old days. This generation must free our people from dependency on exiled politics, a hostage organization, and incompetent leadership. Our enemy is weak, morally bankrupt, uses the most fractured military and bureaucratic structures. It’s life is dependent on the cooperation of our people. We must make such cooperation impossible, one way or the other. Most importantly, our people today expects nothing less than excellence from their organizations, in this fast moving world, we must make our movement compatible, flexible and efficient as to utilize all opportunities to satisfy the expectations of the mass. Our people’s pride has been deeply injured by the incompetency of leaders who exposed the nation to laughs and ridicules. We will and we can change that, because today, Oromos from all angles of the land have been fully alert and ready to retake their rights back. Today, Oromos are sending their kids to school in millions and are leaving none behind. We, Oromos, have the culture, resources and determination not only to solve our problem, but also we can and we shall play the leading role in democratizing, stabilizing and developing the entire East Africa. We must believe in ourselves, be true to our conscious and loyal to our people nothing and no one else!

Jawar Siraj Mohammed
Stanford University
July 27, 2009
jawarmd@gmail.com

Failure to Deliver: The Journey of the Oromo Liberation Front in the Last Two Decades Part III

2009-12-13T05:42:00.000-08:00

PART III: THE WAY AHEAD, Is Reform Possible? Can the Damage be Undone?

Several Oromos I have spoken to believe that there is still hope for reforming the OLF. But as I will show next, one needs to assess why past efforts aimed at reforming and changing the organization failed. By using the last two breakups as examples of impossibility of reforming the OLF , I will demonstrate that the organization has been damaged beyond repair.

1) Endless Transition: The Ideological Difference that Never Was
About eight years ago OLF split into two factions that became known as Transitional Authority ( TA) and Central Committee ( Shanee Gumii) -which kept the existing organizational structure. Although ideological differences were cited as the cause for the split, we now know that was not the case. As mentioned above, the organization suffered devastating defeat at the hand of the enemy during the prior decade because of absent, disorganized and sometimes abortive leadership, who wanting to clear their name from wrong doing began blaming each other. It was this attempt to avoid responsibility by painting the other that developed into factions.

In attempt to defend their record and maintain dominance within the organization, the top two leaders began surrounding themselves with loyal cadres. Therefore, ideological difference, independent Oromia vis-a-vis Democratizing Ethiopia” was never really big enough to split the organization, it was simply manufactured to give the conflict an ideological face. By their own admission the TA faction know that from the very beginning Lencho Leta believed in democratizing Ethiopia and hence this issue could not have become a reason for split decades later. They even followed him into the transitional government without any hesitation. The TA group took ideology as a major issue not because they truly believed in it but rather because they assumed that the OLA and the public at large supports the idea of independent Oromia, therefore they wanted to use it to consolidate support.
The fact that, although independent Oromia was a more popular position, the TA lost the battle to the other faction, confirms my believe that the internal conflict was a result of lack of success rather than ideology. Frustrated by a decade of defeat and humiliation, the burning demand of the soldiers and the public, who blamed the old leaders for all the mess, there was a change in leadership. Dawud Ibsa, although a veteran within the organization was a new face, so the members and the public chose to take a chance with him rather than the TA that was dominated by the old guard. Therefore, the TA , despite its populist ideology and highly respected and recognized individuals, failed to gain significant support and eventually died out. Therefore, there is no doubt that the cause of the 2001 split was neither ideological nor regional but rather a failure of the organization to deliver any results.

2) The Last Chance: The Leader that took life out of the Front
The victorious Dawud group clearly did not understand neither the cause of the split nor reason why, despite their unpopular ideology, they won the public support over their formidable foes. Hence they kept repeating the same mistake as their predecessors. Thus OLF under Dawud Ibssa’s leadership continued to fade away without any notable accomplishment. As leaders and cadres channeled their energy into destroying the TA, the true mission of the organization was ignored. However, the group came under pressure from the influx of young students who were eager to fight the enemy that forced them out of schools, but they were dismayed to find out that the front had neither the structural capability, nor a willing leadership that can channel the energy of the youth towards constructive role. Once they were shipped to Eritrea and completed training their fate was to engage in hard labor at Mr Afeworki’s farm. This was unacceptable to the restless youth who dreamed of joining the vanguard in order to liberate their people. Those who demanded action were systematically silenced by labeling them as enemy infiltrators and then making them disappear by throwing them to jail.
Nevertheless, the pressure on the leadership dramatically increased when hundreds of Oromo soldiers defected from the Ethiopian military and joined them. This had two major effects on the leadership. First, it increased expectation of better performance because, members and supporters hoped that, addition of such skilled and decorated officers would reinforce and re-energize the organization. Second, the soldiers who came in hundreds have a deeply held personal grudge against the regime in Finfinnee that they came to immediately engage in a struggle of payback. Contrary to their statement, about their sympathy for the Oromo mass, and the accusations labeling them as Woyane agents, the primary cause of defect for those soldiers and other OPDO members were the deep and personal humiliation they suffered under Tigrean domination. Therefore, for them the need for immediate re-engagement was not negotiable.
This fierce urgency of the soldiers strengthened those who were demanding more action. Unfortunately once again, the leadership took this as an offense to their authority. Here I would like to stress that, it is not that the leadership does not want to fight but rather they did not appreciate the fact that “outsiders and newcomers” who do not have years of “jungle credit” within the organization could dare to tell them what to do. The result as we know is that, a new split occurred slicing the already deteriorating organization.
Although this last split was framed and did happen across regional basis, it is wrong to assume that regionalism was the cause of the split. As that of 2001, the 2008 breakup was caused due to lack of any concrete action since the then cabinet took power. The entire leadership was responsible for the failure as each of them were engaged in vilifying the TA group day and night instead of doing the job they were entrusted with. When blaming the TA leadership for all misdeeds was no longer an option, they had to turn against each other and resorted to the good old OLF tradition of using regional affiliation to strengthen factional power-base and accuse the opposite.

3) Show me the Change! A Timely Slogan, Business As Usual
Last year this time, a grouping calling itself, Change! emerged and promised to bring tangible result within short period of time. So far they have showed absolutely nothing that resembles change. In fact they continue the same old OLF tradition of fabricating victories, exaggerating reforms and most importantly engaging in a nasty war of words against their former colleagues. Their cadres who spend twenty-four hour on pal talk have been spreading the poison of regionalism just like the group they broke away accusing of domination.
From the outset their overtly hateful campaign against the great people of Wallagaa, whom they do not even know, has undermined their rather appealing call for change. Through their narrow and childish behaviors such ill-mannered cadres have shamed the glorious people of Arsi, whose unforgettable battle against colonizers at Aanolee is a source of pride for all Oromos. Those cadres understand nothing about the “waadaa and hoodaa” of Sikkoo Mandoo. If they do, they would have known that the Arsi are waiting, praying and crying for that day when they would join their brothers to celebrate the end of subjugation and the return of Kaawoo Oromo. Their counterparts are no better as they shamelessly speak of Arsi without knowing that that generous and respectful people, who would never allow even a stranger drink water but milk in their house, let alone engage in a nasty low blow. Therefore, the Change group has failed to bring the much needed shift in political culture and continue to make the same mistake as their foes.

The vast majority, if not all, of the leadership of the Change group, just like the other two faction, still live in exile. Hence, their faction is as dependent on the Diaspora as before. Therefore, their best accomplishment so far is having larger public meetings and a one-time flow of hard earned dollars. They clearly did not learn any lesson because the large crowd was there as spectator to see the new faces of the old organization, and it was the momentary hope and anger at the old guard that helped them generate such large sum of money. Neither the crowed nor the money will continue as the faction will not be able to deliver what they promised.
As mentioned above Eritrea plays critical role in sabotaging OLF and the Oromo struggle at large. OLF will not be able to effectively engage in fighting the enemy as long as it remains in Eritrea. If the change group was serious about transforming the dormant organization into an active insurgent movement, the first thing to do would have been to leave Eritrea for the jungle of Oromia. Now their faction is as a prisoner as the faction they broke away from. Their actions, policies and strategies will be subjected to the approval of Eritrea, and from the experience of OLF under Mr Dawud Ibsa, we know what a leadership that is controlled by Issaias can produce. Therefore, I conclude that the change group can bring neither political nor practical change to the Oromo cause. They are as destructive and useless as their opponents if not worse.

4) Unity as a Slogan? Is Reconciliation Possible?
Unity is the most abused and deeply misunderstood word by Oromo politicians such that it has developed a negative connotation. I am always amazed when people who spend so much time spreading false allegations, conspiracy theories and prejudicial assumptions preach about unity. It is wrongly assumed that unity of the larger Oromo people is dependent up on the unity of political factions. Such believe comes from the deeply held dogma about the indivisibility of the front from the people. While consolidations of Oromo forces help strengthen the movement, their fractionalization does not necessarily dismantle the Oromo.
I have no doubt that the internal conflict within the front has traumatized our people especially those who reside abroad. I have heard of numerous stories about families, relatives and lifelong friends, who withstood together the suffering of Sudanese and Somalia refugee camps, whom the 2001 split had broken apart. Our women who once consoled and gave each other the strength of caring for their family while their spouse were in the field have abandoned each other due to such highly charged, deeply personal and painful split. It’s such a traumatizing experience for children to be told , all of the sudden, that they could not visit childhood friends. It is shameful that disagreement over politics could destroy the bonding that was formed by blood and sweat and stood firm through thick and thin. The sad thing is that OLF leaders either never understood the magnitude of the damage they caused to the Oromo community, or they just did not care as long as their selfish and narrow interest were fulfilled. Hence, it was no surprised they repeated the same crime again in 2008.
I have noticed that those families and relationships that were destroyed in 2001 have gradually healed, often because individuals understood how unnecessary it was to choose factional politics over precious relationships. Many people just gave up politics in favor of family and friends, while others completely stopped discussing political issues. Thus, I am optimistic that relationships that were ruined in 2008 will be eventually repaired as people realize how wrong it is to shun a dear friend in favor of some useless factional politics.
But, one crucial issue that must be raised here is that it was the incompetence of the leadership to deliver victory that led to the formation of factions, who spread their organizational poison to the larger public. Therefore, there is no doubt that OLF as an organization has been the biggest source of regionalism and other societal poisons. Any attempt to resurrect OLF will further worsen the damage as these leaders will have another chance to split again and fracture our people.
I do not understand why individuals who know very well how the effort of the “shanacha Jaarsummaa” and formation of ULFO could not solve the OLF crisis now call for another round of phony and even distractive reconciliation effort. I am opposed to the idea of wasting time trying to reconcile OLF because 1) It will be impossible to bring genuine reconciliation due to the deeply held organizational culture, lack of a single concrete issue of disagreement and because Eritrea will never allow a move that makes the organization less reliant on it. 2) What will bring Oromos together, heal the wound and strengthen our unity is action and victory, and this cannot be expected from the very people who made it impossible. Therefore, anyone who truly wants to unite the Oromo, must make the crucial decision and move to Oromia; be it through Bole or Bale. Fight the enemy either in the jungle or streets of Oromia, and I will bet my life that it will take no conference before all Oromos rally behind such movement..

Failure to Deliver: The Journey of the Oromo Liberation Front in the Last Two Decades Part II

2009-12-13T05:39:00.000-08:00

PART II: SOURCES OF INEFFICIENCY

In the first part, I have discussed how lack of action perpetuated the crisis within OLF and damaged it beyond repair. I have suggested that growth of regionalism and incompetent leadership are mitigating factors that are the by-product of the chaotic life cycle of an organization that lack action. Now I must answer the legitimate question. Why did the organization lack such necessary action to avoid the problem in the first place? In this part, I present three major factors that hindered the organization from delivering the much needed action. The first factor, forces us to look back into the history of the organization and understand that the front inherited deep and complicated political tradition that prevented the leadership from dealing the root cause. The second and third factors are new phenomenons that the organization faced during the last decade or so.

a) Inherited Destructive Organizational Traditions
OLF is a foster child of the student movement that brought the revolution; as such it shares some common organizational behaviors and characteristics with all other organizations that came out that era, such as the EPRP, TPLF and EPLF. Some of these characteristics are lack of political civility, sense of entitlement and the desire to control everything and everyone within the society they claim to represent. These behaviors are the result of the situation they came out of, therefore we must look at the social and political climate under which the student movement was created, formed and developed into political parties.
After the 1960’s coup attempt blew off the lid of “untouchability” from Harresillassie, students began debating and discussing politics, breaking the taboo of “ zim bala af zimb aygebam”- a mouth that remains shut has no worry for flies. However, the absence of any culture of political dialogue prior to that era means the young students had to deal with the highly charged communist theory without any prior knowledge about political civility that is essential for constructive debates to take place. Thus, it was common for discussions and debates to heat-up and name calling and fighting to ensue. Policy and ideological debates were assumed to be ways of differentiating the winner from the looser which usually led to jubilation and humiliation. Arguments were taken so personally that it usually resulted in the formation of cliques. Character assassination politics that have been too common among Ethiopian politicians has its origin to that era.
The situation got worse when the regime moved to suppress the student movement. To overcome the persecution of the security forces, the discussions and debates went underground, through formation of small cells, where secrecy was crucial. Those underground cells were the breeding ground for the already rife Abyssinian debtera culture of suspicion and conspiracy. The debtera tradition is one that is full of secrecy, conspiracy and backstabbing. In that world, there are clear winners and losers. Concepts such agreeing to disagree and power sharing are unknown. If a group member disagrees with a view held by the majority, he was excluded from the cell and begins his own defamation campaign against his former friends often by creating new cliques. The underground world made it difficult to differentiate credible information from fabricated vengeful accusations. This created a favorable condition for individuals to falsely accuse those who disagree with them.
Thus, the two political parties that came out of the student movement, MEISON and EPRP, and the later ones such as OLF, were built by individuals who had their first political training on the chaotic campus and the underground world. The revolutionaries were known for fighting over nothing and suspecting everything. It is now clear MEISON and EPRP, although lead by some of the brightest individuals, destroyed each other practically over insignificant differences.
Founders of OLF brought good share of that political tradition with them, that one should not be surprised to find out that the leaders spend most of their time chasing rumors than developing fact based strategy. When the first power struggle broke out, Jaarraa was accused of conspiring with Somalia to spread Islam, and his team in return hit back by labeling OLF as a Protestant organization. If a leader disagrees with a person from Shawa, the accepted tactic was to tie him with the dead Gobana - a sellout, regardless of that person’s merits and records. This has contributed to insignificant participation and representation of Shawa in OLF - despite its numerical and strategic importance.
How people like Lencho Leta were dealt with is another example. Although he was one of the founding members of the organization who played critical role, mostly good but some unforgettable mistakes, after 1993, so many rumors, conspiracy theories and accusations were orchestrated about him. Some called him a sleeper agent, other accused of selling the cause to TPLF, and some swore that he is not even an Oromo. Here is what is interesting, those ridiculous rumors were mostly fabricated by individuals who know the man from childhood, and never raised such issues while working with him for decades. There is no doubt that Lencho’s mistakes have played critical role in the disastrous encampment of the OLA, but he was not solely responsible. The remaining leadership embarked on the defamation campaign in order to paint Lencho as a sellout and enemy infiltrator, then blame him for everything that went wrong--so that they can be relieved of accountability. This tradition is so widespread within the organization that it has become the most preferred method of covering up issues and discrediting one another. It has also contributed to the infamous extreme negative reaction against critics and the common practice of outsourcing cause of failure by fabricating excuses. Never admitting mistakes and blame-game is a shared characteristic of all those organizations and individuals that came out of the student movement.
Before falling under subjugation, the Oromo had no hierarchical social structure, that all men regardless of their wealth or political role were considered equal. The poor and rich dined together, even the Abba Gada never received a bow from a layman. The Abyssinians were different; strict hierarchical division based on wealth, family and power were enforced. Sense of entitlement was so strong amongst those rich and powerful. The youth who established our movement was by large trained under such system that, although they rose against it, they could not completely free themselves from this culture of entitlement. This was clear from the very beginning as the educated were so elitist that they staged a coup against Jaarra Abbagadaa simply because they felt that he was not good enough since he had no “modern” education.

As the organization moved on, education as a source of entitlement was replaced by the years one has spent with organization. Although hundreds of highly skilled soldiers and well qualified intellectuals joined the organization, they were denied the opportunity to utilize their skills and knowledge to benefit the front. This has immensely contributed to the lack of effective leaders the movement desperately needed.
One of the main characteristics of the leftist organizations was their obsession to control every aspect of their society. They are so obsessed with controlling the mind. Such organization, who always claim to be the “vanguard” of the cause regardless of their popularity and strength, work so hard to make sure that their constituency falls under their absolute monopoly. The youth, the women, the elders, the religious institution and business are expected to be organized under the vanguard party. Information flows through tightly controlled, top-to-bottom structure.
The political forces that emerged from the student movement were led by individuals who worshiped Mao Zedong and Stalin , so they embraced such undemocratic, rigid and control freak organizational model. The TPLF today controls the youth, women and farmers associations, the church, the mosque, the media, businesses and almost every aspect of the Ethiopian people. OLF, which claims to oppose such totalitarianism, wastes so much time and resource to control the Oromo community association, the scholarly organization, Maccaa Tuulamaa, Waaqeffannaa, churches, mosques, and the media including the Internet if they can. Unfortunately for OLF, the time when people accepted such control in the name of satisfying the vanguard, has passed as citizens are sick and tired of any kind of dictatorships, be it individual, party or a state. Unlike Woyane and Shyabia, it had no state power to enforce its desire, therefore every attempt it makes to control civic associations has backfired.
In general, as the product of the 1970’s student movement, OLF has done so much for the Oromo people by challenging and destroying the Abyssinian cultural and political colonialism. Unfortunately it has also inherited all the evils of the Abyssinian hierarchical culture and the totalitarian leftist organizational tradition. As time changed, these inherited organizational and structural norms have contributed to the slow death of the front.

b) Exile Politics: The Reality Gap and Sucking the Energy Out of the Grassroots
When they left the charter in 1992, the OLF leaders abandoned their soldiers and supporters without any notice or guidance. The chaos and confusion that followed caused general breakdown of the command structure where rules and discipline were ignored, and some rogue soldiers committed unspeakable crimes against their own people, especially in Hararge. The disorganized and leaderless soldiers fell pray for the well financed and effectively commanded Shabiya-Woyane coalition that, despite the heroic defense by the field commanders, effectively removed OLA from its liberated zones. The organization that was believed to have some forty thousand soldiers was left with a small fraction of that, as many perished and the majority were rounded up and thrown to jail or just gave up. The blame-game that flared up amongst the leadership, soon after, further disabled the front from regrouping and hitting back.

Although OLF claims to be led by a National Assembly comprised of some forty or so people, since late 1990s, there is no single individual who resides within the Oromian soil. The vast majority of the leadership reside in the Western countries where they wage cyber politics while the remaining few have taken comfortable refuge under the wing of the Eritrean dictator.
An organization that has its leadership in exile cannot lead a struggle because of two simple realities. First, presence of a leader amongst his supporters and soldiers has significant symbolic role both in strengthening party cohesion as well as boosting moral. It is morally indefensible for a leader of any movement, let alone, an armed front, to sit in a safe and comfortable place and urge oppressed and poor people to die. Soldiers and followers need a leader who can command them by example, by starving and surviving with them. The presence of a leader amongst fighters boosts their confidence, loyalty and commitment. OLF leaders betrayed their members and the Oromo people by running away when the time got tougher, as a result not only did they lose respect but also numerous conspiracy theories were developed about the true desire of the leadership. Second, an exiled leader faces serious reality gap. Policies and strategies that are developed based on second-hand and heresy information are sure to fail. The political, social, environmental and economic realities of today’s Oromia are dramatically different than they were when OLF leaders left Oromia over a decade ago.
Departure of the leadership moved the center of the struggle from Oromia to the Diaspora. The more the leadership stayed away from the homeland, the more dependent they became on the Diaspora for support, which forced them to cater to their views and demands. Leaders prioritized the satisfaction of the Diaspora base so the dollar would continue to flow that, they ignored the burning plight of the peasants in Oromia. An interesting evidence of this can be observed from the annual display of pictures of soldiers to arouse emotions and convince supporters about victories it had never accomplished.
A rebels’ success depends on how well its structures are intertwined with the people and land it fights to liberate. A rebel that is dependent on its mass has to continue to improve its performance both in expanding its control, and defend the peasant from enemy attack. Thus, the necessity of gaining material and tactical support from the peasants necessitates an insurgent movement to continue delivering tangible results. Since OLF leadership, in the past decade or so, did not really rely on the Oromo peasants, they did not have to fulfill their duty in order to survive. The Diaspora, who do not deal with daily abuse by the oppressive system, do not truly see the fierce urgency someone in Oromia feels. That is why, leaders and supporters of OLF who live outside Oromia rather derail the struggle forever than see their perspective views and faction lose this endless war of words. It is also important to note that even if all Oromo political factions in the Diaspora reconcile and united by some miracle, they cannot produce any result as long as the leadership remains in exile
Oromos must learn from the experience of the Tibetan people, that despite being the most internationally supported independence movement and led by one of the most famous individuals on earth ( Dalai Lama) , today they are not any closer to independence than they were fifty years ago. By establishing an exiled government, the Dalai Lama effectively took life out of the movement, because running away, not fighting at homeland became the norm. In our case the exile- centered movement also made Oromians to wait for the Diaspora to bring freedom, which negatively prevents strong grassroots movements from emerging which could nurture potential future leaders. I strongly believe that he who is truly prepared to sacrifice for the cause must move to Oromian soil before promising any change. The Diaspora plays important role as supporters of the struggle, but must not be allowed to become center of the movement and suck out the energy.

c) Eritrea: A Safe Haven for Incompetent Leadership and The Movement that Became Hostage
It is a public secret that Shabia played critical role in forcing the OLF out of the transitional government in 1992. After coercing the organization to encamp its soldiers, Shabia joined hand with TPLF to wipe out OLF. The egomaniac Eritrean leader miscalculated the prospect of using Meles Zenawi as a puppet to build his war wretched state by exploiting Oromian resources. He mistakenly thought that eliminating OLF from the scene would allow him unconstrained access to the resources of the South. His ambitions began to fade away in front of his eyes, because his supposed puppets in Finfinnee turned against him after they consolidated their grip on the empire. Facing a certain defeat at the hand of the supposed puppet, which was using the entire human and material resources of the empire, Eritrea began to look for proxies, and at the same time OLF leaders happen to be in deep disillusionment that they welcomed the invitation to settle in Asmara.
Eritrea’s role in destroying OLA withstanding, there was no strategic benefit gained by moving to Eritrea, as there was no landmass or water body that connect Oromia and Eritrea. It is common for an insurgent movement to establish a base in a neighboring country across the border but moving to Eritrea is like moving to Uganda. It’s unthinkable to provide supply and reinforcement for the fighters across the unfriendly state of Sudan as it was proved to be when SPLA and Khartoum sabotaged almost all efforts. Therefore, I argue that there was only one factor that determined the decision to move to Eritrea, the safety of the leaders.
In addition to the strategic difficulty, moving to Eritrea created three major problems to the movement. First, it created disconnect between the leadership and the soldiers at the front. One has to be under constant eminent danger in order to fiercely fight and such quest for survival forces him to develop effective tactics and strategies not only to defend himself but also to expand his strong hold and move to the offensive. When a rebel leader is on the field thus he is permanently alert and has to be engaged in commanding and coordinating his force using strategies and tactics that were developed based on real time situations. The OLF leaders who reside in Asmara were not under such threat, and hence their survival did not depend on the success of their army but rather on the Eritrean government. The strategies and policies they devise were based on outdated information that it was often difficult to implement by the commanders in the field. This greatly contributed to the failure of few attempts to engage the enemy, that resulted unnecessary loss of life and deterioration of morale amongst commanders and soldiers who finally abandoned the field.

The second obstacle OLF faced by being in Eritrea was the fact that it provided the corrupted leaders institutions to suppress their dissenters. It is no secret that several Oromo students, journalists and soldiers who were critical of the leadership were thrown to the Eritrean jail or prevented from leaving the country for years. This was done to prevent such critics from exposing the corruption and inaction of the leadership. The third yet most crucial effect of locating in Eritrea is that, it made OLF and the Oromo movement hostage to Shabia-Woyane conflict. The Eritrean regime’s wants to use the OLF as a proxy, therefore it had to effectively control the organization in order to manipulate any outcome of OLF-TPLF engagement as it was evidenced when it vetoed almost all of the negotiations, even those where OLF apparently accepted. A strong, effective and active OLF that has its leaders outside Eritrea would have not allowed Shabia to undermine the organizations interest. However, OLF’s chairman who needed Shabia's protection even from his own dissatisfied soldiers was too happy to serve the former in order to survive and remain at the head of the organization.
Therefore, I strongly believe that relocating the headquarters of OLF to Eritrea was the worst strategic blunder committed by OLF leadership, and being in Eritrea heavily contributed towards weakening the front. I do not believe Eritrea will ever allow OLF to leave, and as long as it remains there, it will not serve the interest of the Oromo people.

Failure to Deliver: The Journey of the Oromo Liberation Front in the Last Two Decades Part I

2009-12-13T05:20:00.000-08:00

By writing this article, I understand that I am touching on one of the most closely guarded taboos, the untouchability of the OLF. I also understand that, because so many precious lives were sacrificed under the banner of this organization, emotions run very high at the mention of criticism. But I have the right and the duty to share my views and ideas regarding our movement. I have no intention to inflict any discomfort on any particular individual or group, I have tried to be as impartial as possible but if anyone is personally offended, I hope you will grant me forgiveness. The article touches on some of the most controversial topics in our politics; therefore, I plead with my readers to patiently and soberly look through the entire essay in order to get the overall message: Note: This is not a research or scholarly paper, it is purely based on my understanding of the issue from informal discussion I had with former and current members of the leadership, active and retired members, ex-soldiers in Oromia and abroad, discussion forums, public gatherings and what I observed in Oromia over the past years. In this article OLF refers to all the three faction that are using the name, and the general criticism is fully applicable to all Diaspora based political organizations.

Introduction

THINK BIG! Wrote one of my heroes, a man who suffered years of incarceration in the notorious Ethiopian prison for the just cause of the Oromo people. That man is honorable Ibsaa Guutamaa, whose book, “The Prisoner of Conscience” details the moral, psychological and physical degradation inflicted upon Oromo nationalists in Mengistu’s prison, is one of the most moving books I ever read. He recently, published an article appealing to all OLF factions to overcome their division and forge a united front. Although I totally respect his genuine call for unity, I must disagree with this hero of mine by saying that the OLF has been damaged beyond repair. The beloved organization of our people has outlived its purposefulness and continuing to cover up the wounds would cause more harm to the movement than benefit.

It has been years since OLF has ceased to be the pride of the Oromo people and has transformed itself to a source of shame and disappointment by facilitating disintegration, growth of regionalist sentiment and retardation of the movement in general. This essay is not a response to Obbo Ibsaa’s latest article; rather it is an attempt to present a case against wasting time, energy and resources to resuscitate an organization that will not likely benefit the Oromo anymore. I will argue that because of weak, undisciplined and incompetent leadership, through exile politics and a cult-like outdated organizational tradition, the OLF could not produce any result over the past decade, therefore brought its own demise. Furthermore, the destructive internal conflict has intoxicated the organization beyond any repair that plastering it together will further spread the poison into the Oromo public.
This essay is organized in four parts; the first part identifies the primary cause of the problem, which is lack of action, and the second part deals with factors that exacerbated the inefficiency of the front. The third part will make case why reforming the organization may not be possible and the last part contains suggestions for the way forward.

PART I : Misdiagnosing the Root Cause and Dealing with the Symptoms
Lack of Action: Broken Promises, Fabricated Accomplishments and Its Consequence

It’s common to hear words such as “Oromo people and OLF are one in the same”, “OLF is the vanguard of Oromo people” and “the Oromo struggle is unthinkable without OLF”. These loaded words have been deeply engraved in our psyche that we do not even see how erroneous and misleading they are both to the leaders and supporters of the organization. If we just take away our emotional attachment to the organization and assess its accomplishment vis-a-vis its stated goal, we can see how wrong these words are. An organization, be it a business or political, must be evaluated based on it’s merit and practical accomplishment not based on how articulate its mission statement is, or whether it has taken up the right cause.
There is no question that OLF’s political program effectively reflects the just demand of Oromo people. However, over the past two decades, OLF has been in a downward spiral, despite the unparalleled financial and moral support it received from the Oromo public both at home and abroad, the organization cannot show a single achievement under its belt during this period of time. It has not freed an inch of land in Oromia, or had a single victory against the enemy. But by repeatedly and falsely convincing ourselves about the greatness of the organization, we supporters, failed to demand results from the leadership. Leaders, using slogans and excuses, instead of showing results avoid fulfilling their responsibility and taking accountability for their failures. The insignificant achievement of the organization year after year has produced low expectations. A nation that settles for mediocre gains ends up with no gain at all.
It’s a simple common sense that victory is instrumental in forging unity while lose and underachievement brings shame and disunity. When a company reports gain, stockholders are happy, and the CEO is rewarded a bonus. More investors will be attracted and the company grows. If the company does not make profit, investors withdraw their share which weakens the company and eventually goes bankrupt. The Oromo people heavily invested their property and the lives of their children into OLF, but they have seen no dividend from the organization over the past two decades. Failing to satisfy the public, instead of assessing their problem and coming out with solutions, the leadership of the organization continued to fabricate excuses about the geopolitical hardships, the changing of the international geopolitical dynamic and the uniqueness of the enemy. Such excuses gradually became unacceptable to the new generation of students who joined the organization in mass in the last decade but to find out that the organization they once revered has been taken hostage by cunning authoritarian state, Eritrea.
When fabrication and exaggeration was not enough to quell the anger and frustration of the members and soldiers the leaders turned into labeling them as regionalists in order to isolate the dissenters and destroy the reformist push. In turn the sidelined and frustrated officers also began grouping those from their own region as others shunned them under the propaganda of the establishment. Primordial (preexisting) regional and clan affinities provide fertile ground for this kind of clique formation. Outsiders (Oromos who do not know the inner working of OLF), often make wrong generalization by looking at such clique formation by confusing the symptom, regional grouping, with the cause, lack of action. They fail to understand that to cover his own failure to deliver result, the top leader resorts to surrounding himself with “yes-men”, who often happens to be from his own area but whose view by no means can represent the general sentiment of that particular region. The dissenters, who are the underdogs of the game, play in the hand of such leaders by creating their own regional power base. The establishment leader often wins the battle of propaganda because not only does he have the first strike advantage but also because he uses the entire backing of the institution, particularly the media. The end is obvious; the opposition leaves and forms its own faction.
For instance, it was quite common few years back to hear people complaining about Wallagaa’s sabotaging the struggle. Such sentiment, in addition to misidentifying the cause of the failure, misses one critical issue. Those leaders who failed the struggle might happen to be from that region, but they do not represent the people of Wallagaa who never voted to elect them in the first place. In the organization, they represent themselves, but they form cliques to relieve themselves of taking responsibility for their action and inaction. Even if they were true representatives of that region, individuals not the people who voted bears responsibility for failing to fulfill their duty.
The following diagram is an attempt to summarize the life cycle of the crisis within OLF, especially over the past two decades.

The diagram shows the wave of problems that develop within an inefficient organization that lacks action. Leaders of such organization often have to fabricate excuses or achievements in order to stay in power. But some members who reject the fabrication begin demanding tangible action from the leaders who respond by suppressing the dissent. As openly airing of dissatisfaction is no longer an option, secret cliques of dissent form. So far, the problem brews only within active members. However the dissenters, overpowered by institutionally backed establishment, leak the information in order to expose the leaders. They do so to gain support and sympathy for their side. The establishment also leaks information aimed at defaming the dissenters. The public, who usually do not have the full picture of the problem, begin to contemplate conspiracy theories about the problem. Such often unsubstantiated rumors are always taken advantage of by the competing factions to strengthen regional/clan power base bringing the organization into turmoil.
Eventually, the organization splits into factions, followed by intensified competition to dominate the outcome. Although one dominant group finally will emerge, the chaos paves a way for raise of an illegitimate, unelected and polarizing leadership. Pushed out by the leadership, worn out by infighting and being fed up of nasty politics, supporters and members abandon the organization. This, coupled with wasted resources and destroyed lives, weaken the organization making it even more inefficient which brings the beginning of a new cycle.
As the two-way arrow shows in the diagram, lack of action and each state of the crisis are mutually interdependent. For instance, as lack of action leads to dissention, presence of dissension also prolongs inaction because of the time and resources wasted to quell such revolt and because the division weakens performance. Thus, if the leadership brings action, for example, a successful attack on enemy, not only will they satisfy the dissenters; they can also make formation of cliques unattractive and unnecessary. That is why I believe lack of action is the primary cause of the OLF’s perpetual internal turmoil, because action at any stage could prevent the problem from exacerbating. Once the cycle is completed, it is irreversible because the factional climate is so intense and personalized, plus members and supporters so polarized that rational, logical and conciliatory efforts do not have any space. The best that can be done at that stage is, for either of the faction to realize the root cause, lack of action, and produce real, visible and tangible result to prevent another cycle.
However, when this cycle is repeated, the damage to the organization grows exponentially. The OLF has gone through such cycles at least three times (IFLO crisis, the Transitional Authority split, the Change coup), and therefore one has to imagine how much damage and destruction it has suffered. After these three cycles, I do not see any of the factions understanding and addressing the root cause. Even if they do, it is too late to revive the front, because the organization is so weak, its reputation highly tarnished and its credibility heavily damaged, that it will be impossible to engage in any meaningful action.
Therefore, before we move to cure a disease we must identify the cause, which in the case of OLF’s deterioration is lack of tangible result. Dealing with the symptom could lead us to subscribing the wrong medicine that can worsen the situation. Inaction is the primary cause of OLF’s demise, while regionalism, disintegration and factions are symptoms.